Turkey's Inflation Expectations Steady at 29.6 Percent for Year-End

Market participants' expectations for inflation at the end of 2026 have remained steady at 29.6 percent, according to the latest Survey of Market Participants released by the Central Bank of Turkey. This figure reflects a slight increase from the previous survey period, where the expectation was 29.61 percent.

In terms of short-term inflation forecasts, the expectation for the next 12 months has risen to 23.89 percent, up from 23.70 percent. Conversely, the 24-month-ahead inflation forecast has decreased to 17.94 percent from 18.32 percent. This indicates a mixed outlook among market participants regarding inflation trends in the near future.

The survey also highlights expectations for the Turkish Lira, which have shown little change. The year-end exchange rate forecast for the U.S. dollar is projected at 51.55 lira, a slight decrease from 51.57 lira in the previous survey. However, the 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectation has increased to 59.26 lira per dollar, compared to 58.60 lira previously.

Market Participants Maintain Cautious Optimism on Turkey's Economic Growth

Additionally, participants anticipate that Turkey's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.9 percent in 2026, a slight reduction from the earlier estimate of 3 percent. The GDP growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 3.9 percent.

Overall, the survey reflects a cautious yet stable outlook among market participants regarding Turkey's economic indicators, particularly inflation and currency expectations.